External Interventions in Post-Cold War Africa, 1989–2010

The study of external interventions in conflict management is critical and has implications for international relations and conflict theory. Quantitative studies of the relationship between external interventions and civil war have been prone to some conceptual limitations (understudied lower-intensity periods) and data limitations (unavailability of event battle death data). This article presents a new external interventions data set covering the period between 1989 and 2010 for Africa, building on the Regan et al. (2009) data set, which covers the period between 1945 and 1999. Novel features of this new data set are: the recoding of the overlap period; a broader range of categories of intervention, including UN and non-UN missions; and wider temporal scope, by extending the period of analysis to 2010, by lowering the civil war threshold to 25 battle deaths, and by starting the conflict period from the date of the first battle death in each civil war (based on UCDP GED version-1.5-2011). The advantages of the data set are illustrated with an analysis of the different effects interventions have on high- and low-intensity conflict periods.     

No News Is Good News: Mark and Recapture for Event Data When Reporting Probabilities Are Less Than One

We discuss a common, but often ignored, problem in event data: underreporting bias. When collecting data, it is often not the case that source materials capture all events of interest, leading to an undercount of the true number of events. To address this issue, we propose a common method first used to estimate the size of animal populations when a complete census is not feasible: mark and recapture. By taking multiple sources into consideration, one can estimate the rate of missing data across sources and come up with an estimate of the true number of events. To demonstrate the utility of the approach, we compare Associated Press and Agence France Press reports on conflict events, as contained in the Social Conflict in Africa Database. We show that these sources capture approximately 76% of all events in Africa but that the nondetection rate declines dramatically when considering more significant events. We also show through regression analysis that deadly events, events of a larger magnitude, and events with government repression, among others, are significant predictors of overlapping reporting. Ultimately, the approach can be used to correct for undercounting in event data and to assess the quality of sources used.     

Comparing Electronic News Media Reports of Potential Bioterrorism-Related Incidents Involving Unknown White Powder to Reports Received by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Federal Bureau of Investigation: U.S.A., 2009–2011

There have been periodic electronic news media reports of potential bioterrorism-related incidents involving unknown substances (often referred to as “white powder”) since the 2001 intentional dissemination of Bacillus anthracis through the U.S. Postal System. This study reviewed the number of unknown “white powder” incidents reported online by the electronic news media and compared them with unknown “white powder” incidents reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) during a 2-year period from June 1, 2009 and May 31, 2011. Results identified 297 electronic news media reports, 538 CDC reports, and 384 FBI reports of unknown “white powder.” This study showed different unknown “white powder” incidents captured by each of the three sources. However, the authors could not determine the public health implications of this discordance.     

大数据时代高校网络舆情应对策略的重新定位

大数据时代,网络舆情应对能力成为衡量高校管理水平的重要评价指标,但是高校网络舆情应对策略的研究对于事前应对分析仍然存在不足。高校网络舆情应对策略的重新定位,不仅需要转变思想观念如重视批评与自我批评、正确看待应急预案、正确看待网络舆情、相信并且重视科学;而且需要加强能力建设如重视顶层设计、具备大局观念、利用大数据挖掘技术、加强沟通与合作、挖掘本质根源。     

计算机系统遭到犯罪入侵后的电子证据取证

电子证据没有传统证据所拥有的永恒性,电子犯罪的调查和起诉,调查人员必须根据在某种交易已经完成后的记录来立案。一旦探测到受到入侵,你有两种选择方案来对付—将系统和网络断开,开始取证,或者仍旧让系统联网,尝试监控入侵者。利用正确的工具,具备所有器件如何工作的知识,就是收集所需证据需要的一切。     

网络时代我国隐私权立法的思考

本文结合欧美一些国家相关立法的对比研究,立足我国隐私权立法的现状,从制定个人数据保护法方面对我国隐私权立法提出一些初步设想。同时,还就电脑网络环境中个人数据的技术保护与法律保护的协调问题进行了探讨和研究。     

电子文件与纸质档案价值鉴定之比较分析

本文主要从电子文件的价值鉴定和纸质档案的价值鉴定入手,从不同的方面比较了两者的异同,重点阐述电子文件的价值鉴定。笔者根据比较分析电子文件的价值鉴定和纸质档案的价值鉴定,对两者的鉴定工作提出了几点建设性的意见。希望本文的论述既能对档案工作者有所帮助,又能对档案研究人员有所启发。     

Missing Data Problems in Criminological Research: Two Case Studies

This paper considers the problem of missing data in two circumstances commonly confronted by criminologists. In the first circumstance, there is missing data due to subject attrition—some cases drop out of a study. In this context, analysts are frequently interested in examining the association between an independent variable measured at time t(x _t ) and an outcome variable that is measured at time t + 1(y _t + 1); the problem is that the outcome variable is only observed for those cases which do not drop out of the study. In the second circumstance there is missing data on an independent variable of interest for typical reasons (i.e., the respondent did not wish to answer a question or could not be located). In this case, researchers are interested in estimating the association between the independent variable with missing data and an outcome variable that is fully observed. Criminologists often handle these two missing data problems by conducting analyses on the subsample of observations with complete data. In this paper, we explore this problem with two case studies and we then illustrate the use of methods that directly address the uncertainty produced by missing data.